Corporate vulnerability in the US and China during COVID-19: A machine learning approach.

The impact of COVID-19 on stock market dynamics and other macroeconomic indicators has been extensively researched. However, the question of how it affects corporate vulnerability has received less attention. This article aims to fill this gap by examining the implications of COVID-19 on corporate vulnerability in the United States (US) and China, using daily data from January 2020 to December 2021. The empirical results of cointegration analysis demonstrate that COVID-19 considerably worsen corporate vulnerabilities in the long-term in the US and in the short-term in China. Additionally, non-linear results demonstrate long-run asymmetries in the US and short-run asymmetries in China, confirming the accuracy of error prediction and suggesting that US corporations are more exposed to COVID-19-induced risks. The channels through which COVID-19 may affect corporate vulnerability include changes in consumer behavior and demand, disruptions in supply chains, financial stress, government policies and regulations, and changes in the competitive landscape. This study sheds light on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on corporate vulnerability in the US and China, revealing regulatory implications that may necessitate greater government involvement, managerial implications that emphasize risk management and contingency planning, and social implications that highlight the importance of prioritizing stakeholder welfare and embracing digital transformation.

The determinants of crude oil prices: Evidence from ARDL and nonlinear ARDL approaches

This paper is an innovative attempt to empirically investigate the determinants of crude oil prices. The main objective is to distinguish between short-and long-term effects of some covariates on oil prices. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is applied to daily series spanning the period from January 2, 2003, to May 24, 2021, to analyze long-run relationships and short-run dynamics. The paper also focuses on the asymmetric effects of covariates and a nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) approach is used to explore this asymmetry. The use of an asymmetric error correction model with asymmetric cointegration provides new insights for examining the determinants of oil prices. All investigations of underlying oil price fluctuations are examined both before and in the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results, based on different econometric specifications, have key policy implications for policymakers both with and without COVID-19 potential considerations.

The asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on global retail energy markets: Are the markets responding to the fear of the unknown?

Following the paucity of empirical studies on the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on global retail energy markets and the need to reassess the markets for the prevalence of rockets and feathers effect and rent-seeking behavior by retailers during the Covid-19 pandemic, we studied the asymmetric response of the markets to changes in EPU and crude oil costs. We estimated nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models over the period 2004 M11-2020 M6 using data for global and domestic EPUs as well as gasoline, automotive diesel, domestic heating oil, industrial fuel oil and crude oil markets. We find that rising uncertainty significantly increases retail energy prices both in the short-run and long-run, especially in UK, Japan and Europe. The asymmetric patterns show that many of the markets respond more to rising uncertainty than declining uncertainty, suggesting the prevalence of the "fear of the unknown”. Our results also showed significant evidence of rockets and feathers effect in all the countries, except Canada. Furthermore, the likelihood of rent-seeking by retailers was observed in the diesel and domestic heating oil markets in Italy, UK, and France. The study concluded that these findings have important policy implications, particularly as they relate to consumer welfare, antitrust policies and stability of the policy environment.

The determinants of crude oil prices: Evidence from ARDL and nonlinear ARDL approaches

This paper is an innovative attempt to empirically investigate the determinants of crude oil prices. The main objective is to distinguish between short- and long-term effects of some covariates on oil prices. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is applied to daily series spanning the period from January 2, 2003, to May 24, 2021, to analyze long-run relationships and short-run dynamics. The paper also focuses on the asymmetric effects of covariates and a nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) approach is used to explore this asymmetry. The use of an asymmetric error correction model with asymmetric cointegration provides new insights for examining the determinants of oil prices. All investigations of underlying oil price fluctuations are examined both before and in the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results, based on different econometric specifications, have key policy implications for policymakers both with and without COVID-19 potential considerations.

Exchange rate volatility and trade flows in Indonesia and ten main trade partners: asymmetric effects

Purpose This paper aims to examine whether Indonesian cross-border trade responds asymmetrically to exchange rate volatility (ERV). Design/methodology/approach An exponential generalized autorgressive conditional heteroscedasticity model is applied to estimate the ERV of Indonesia and ten main trade partners using quarterly data from 2006 to 2020. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag estimation is applied to estimate the impact of ERV on cross-border trade. Impacts from the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic are covered. Dynamic panel data is used for the robustness test. Findings In the short-run, ERV significantly affects exports to most of the top partners (positively, negatively or both). In the long run, asymmetric effects occur in Indonesia's exports to five top destinations. The weakening of the Indonesian Rupiah mainly supports exports in the short term. Imports from top partners are also affected by ERV in both the short run and, to a lesser extent, in the long run. Both the GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic reduced trade: for most cases, in the short run. The dynamic panel model suggests that ERV has asymmetric impact on cross-border trade in the long run. Practical implications Exchange rate strategies need to avoid a single-side policy approach and, instead, account for exporter and importer differences in risk behaviour and an asymmetric response to ERV in trade. Policymakers need to consider policies that stabilise the currency. Originality/value This study provides evidence that cross-border trade can react asymmetrically to the exchange rate uncertainty and that the impacts of real ERV are asymmetric as well. The authors also apply a dynamic panel that signals that ERV matters in the long run for Indonesian trade with top partners.

TOURISM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS IN MALDIVES: ASYMMETRIC ANALYSIS AND ROLE OF ICT

The relentless spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, which began in the first quarter of 2020, aided by the periodical emergence of new variants, is continuing to inflict unprecedented damages on the global economy. Interruptions in international travel have led to the collapse of the tourism-related service industry, which is the backbone of the economies of many small islands and developing states. This paper focuses on the Maldives, an island nation in the Indian Ocean, which is one of the top ten most tourism-dependent economies. Adopting the Solow production function, the paper examines the tourism and economic growth relationship using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) methodology. The analysis shows that tourism earnings and economic growth have a significant asymmetric relationship. The result further reveals that the magnitude of the negative impact of the decline of a given size in tourism earnings on growth is of much larger magnitude than that of the positive impact of the same size rise in tourism earnings. The negative impact of tourism is found to be more pronounced in the long run. ICT spread, measured by the rise in mobile subscriptions, is positively associated with growth and has emerged as a significant contingent factor. We suggest policy measures to step up the recovery progress and growth. © 2022, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak. All rights reserved.

Does oil impact gold during COVID-19 and three other recent crises?

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has inspired an examination of the oil-gold prices nexus during four recent crises: the COVID-19 pandemic, the gold market crash, the European sovereign debt crisis, and the global financial crisis. Using daily data from May 2007-August 2021, we employ the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag method to reveal five novel findings. First, this study contrasts with much of the literature, which infers that the relationship between oil and gold prices is strongly positive. Second, we find no oil and gold price relationship in the long term during all the crisis periods. Third, oil prices have substantially lost their power to predict gold prices in recent times and the oil-gold price linkage is not functional across all crisis periods. Fourth, in the short term, only negative Brent and negative West Texas Intermediate price changes cause positive gold price changes during the pandemic and gold market crash, respectively. Fifth, Brent prices have shown no link to gold prices before COVID-19. We argue that gold prices are less sensitive to oil prices than ever, and the uncertainty resulting from the COVID-19 crisis has attracted investors to gold. Our main findings hold under robustness analyses using fractional cointegration/integration models, lag length, and heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors.

Do volatility indices diminish gold's appeal as a safe haven to investors before and during the COVID-19 pandemic?

This study addresses the research question of whether volatility indices of different asset classes reduce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use daily data for seven volatility indices and gold prices and apply the suitable nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag method to analyze the data. Our results indicate that during COVID-19, only the negative Eurocurrency volatility has diminished gold prices in the long term, whereas in the short term, the positive gold, silver, emerging market, and (lagged) financial market volatilities have diminished gold prices. During the pre-COVID-19 normal period, volatilities in the financial, energy, gold, silver, and eurocurrency markets improved gold prices, whereas in the short term, only lagged negative oil volatility diminished gold prices. A robustness test for the 2011-2015 pre-COVID-19 period reveals that this period is to an extent comparable to that of COVID-19. This study reveals no direct effects from emerging markets volatility on gold prices. Notwithstanding, a long memory in gold prices persists and uneven spillover effects exist. Finally, those volatilities predominantly increase gold prices under the normal economic conditions but decrease gold's appeal as a safe haven during crises in the comparable periods. We delineate the implications for investors.

Do currency exchange rates impact gold prices? New evidence from the ongoing COVID-19 period.

We apply the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag method to examine the relationships between seven leading currency exchange rates and gold prices using daily data from January 2017 to April 2021. The results reveal that in the short term, while negative United States dollar (USD) to United Kingdom pound, negative USD to Canadian dollar, negative USD to Japanese yen, negative USD to Danish krone, and positive USD to euro exchange rates increase gold prices, a lagged positive USD to euro and lagged positive USD to Danish krone exchange rates decrease gold prices. A test of the pre-pandemic normal period reveals that the uneven and unpredictable impacts of six exchange rates on gold prices are particularly due to COVID-19. We find efficiency in the gold market, in line with the market efficiency hypothesis and random walk theory. Our findings indicate that gold acts as a safe-haven asset for investors during COVID-19.

Are anticompetitive behaviours rampant in global retail energy markets? A study of price elasticity, asymmetric price adjustment and rent-seeking.

This study investigated the role of price elasticity in the asymmetric adjustment of global retail energy prices and in the rent-seeking behavior of retail energy firms. Overall, 58 nonlinear ARDL models were estimated for the period 2004:M12 - 2016M8 using data for gasoline, automotive diesel, domestic heating oil, industrial fuel oil and crude oil markets. The results indicate that global retail energy markets are still pervasively fraught with the problems of rockets and feathers effect and the likelihood of retailers manipulating the tax system to hide rent-seeking behaviors. The results also indicate that there is more likelihood of rent-seeking activities in the markets for road fuels whose demand is relatively more price-inelastic than in the markets for non-road fuels whose demand is relatively more price-elastic, thereby suggesting that differences in market structure could offer a possible explanation for rent-seeking and asymmetric price adjustment in global retail energy markets. These results have far-reaching antitrust and consumer welfare implications, which require regulators and policy makers to interminably monitor the global retail energy markets, especially during periods of economic crisis like the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, in order to safeguard the overall social welfare.